Spring Hill, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

128
FXUS62 KTBW 261851
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
251 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A remarkably dry air mass is in place for late July standards as
the KTBW 12Z RAOB sampled a PWAT value of just 1.19 inches, which
is near the daily minimum for this time of the year and well
below the daily mean of around 1.81 inches. The core of the dry
air is also clearly evident on the GOES Blended Total Precipitable
Water (bTPW) imagery from the combined effects of subsidence
associated with strong ridging aloft and Saharan dust around the
region. While it continues to appear that the lack of any strong forcing
for ascent and dry air will keep rain chances extremely limited through
the remainder of the day, it is not entirely out of the question
that a few isolated showers/storms develop with the highest rain
chances generally north of I-4 and focused inland around the I-75
and Florida Turnpike Interchange. However, even in these areas,
PoPs are only around 15%-20% with PoPs below mentionable levels
elsewhere so the main concern continues to be the heat with the
ongoing Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening from
Sarasota/Hardee County northward. Speaking of the heat, another
Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday for nearly the entire
region with the exception of Charlotte and Lee counties where
heat indices will be a touch more borderline in SWFL and overall
confidence in areal coverage of reaching criteria is a bit less.
Regardless, it will still be another hot day tomorrow with highs
pretty much a couple degrees warmer in most locations and even
some southern interior areas may reach the triple digits. There
also will be a slight increase in moisture tomorrow with PWATs
increasing to around 1.6-1.8 inches and given the easterly flow
regime expected tomorrow, the highest rain chances will generally
focus along/near the I-75 corridor and towards the coast by late
afternoon and evening but PoPs will still be below climatology at
around 20%-30%.

The peak of this heat wave event should occur on Monday as mid
level ridging drifts into the lower Mississippi Valley and a
sprawling anticyclonic flow should prevent very much inland
progression of the west coast sea breeze. This should keep highs
on Monday pretty similar to tomorrow with widespread highs in the
mid/upper 90s and a few isolated locations possibly reaching the
triple digits once again. At a minimum, it appears that Heat
Advisory criteria will be met for at least portions of the area,
but some locations may also even reach Excessive Heat Warning
criteria, which is met when heat indices either reach or exceed
113 degrees. After collaboration with neighboring WFOs, decided to
hold off on an Excessive Heat Watch to not overshadow the ongoing
heat concerns through the remainder of the weekend but there are
some signals that at least northern portions of the forecast area
may be very close to meeting the criteria. Otherwise, continued
easterly flow regime will favor late afternoon and evening
convection along the western side of the peninsula but overall
convective coverage still appears to be a bit lower than typical
late July standards with PoPs through Monday evening peaking
around 35%.

The extreme heat risk starts to fade ever so slightly by mid week
as shortwave energy slides southward along the eastern periphery
of the ridge as it retrogrades into the southern plains. While
this will help yield slightly lower heights aloft over our area,
some areas could still reach heat advisory criteria on Tuesday
with conditions becoming more borderline by Wednesday. PoPs also
return to more normal climatological levels into the mid week with
the fading effects of deep layer subsidence as the ridge departs.
Models then show ridging aloft once again becoming established
across the area by late week and into next weekend so while the
heat risk slightly decreases throughout the week, heat indices are
still forecast to be right around heat advisory criteria pretty
much every day through the end of the forecast period so it
doesn`t appear that there will be any meaningful relief from this
extended stretch of high heat and humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Abundant dry air in place will promote VFR conditions area-wide through
tonight with winds falling below 5 kts overnight. There will be a
slight increase in moisture on Sunday so a slightly better chance
of TSRA may occur by the late afternoon or evening hours
tomorrow and this may yield brief flight restrictions at times.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail on Sunday outside of any
precipitation activity with light NNE winds in the morning
shifting onshore by the afternoon at coastal sites as the sea
breeze spreads inland with winds around 5-10 kts throughout the
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

An abundant amount of dry air will keep rain chances below normal
levels through the remainder of the weekend but a few showers and
storms may occur mostly in the evening hours. Otherwise, high
pressure in place will keep winds 10 kts or less though tonight
and winds below 15 kts on Sunday. Moisture levels should recover
by next week with more normal daily rain chances expected as
easterly flow on Monday gradually shifts to southwesterly flow by
Tuesday, which should persist into mid to late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A dry air mass across the area will allow minimum RH values to
fall below 50 percent in interior areas at times through the
remainder of the weekend, but RH values will still remain well
above critical levels. In addition, rain chances will generally
remain below normal through the end of the weekend due to strong
high pressure and dry air in place with only isolated storms
possible across northern portions of the forecast area through
tonight and isolated to scattered storms near coastal areas on
Sunday evening. However, rain chances will return to more normal
levels by next week as moisture levels recover with no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  96  82  96 /  10  30  20  30
FMY  77  97  78  97 /   0  20  10  30
GIF  77  99  78  99 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  78  96  78  95 /   0  30  20  30
BKV  75  97  76  98 /  10  20  10  30
SPG  81  93  81  93 /  10  30  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Hardee-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-
     Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley